Education, Gender, and Childbearing: The case of Iceland
Author(s): Ari Jónsson
Thursday 15 | 13:20-13:40
Room: TP45
Session: Parenting in the Nordic countries
In Iceland, as in other European countries, fertility has declined forcefully during the past decade. In terms of the Nordic countries, Comolli et al. (2021) found that increasing differentials in childbearing by educational level are in part to blame. Iceland was not a part of the analysis. The aim of this study is to provide a first insight into the associations between educational level, gender, and childbearing in Iceland, and to investigate whether the development in Iceland resembles that of the other Nordics. With reference to similar welfare setup and educational systems, but different geographical location to the other Nordics, the study contributes meaningful empirical evidence to an ongoing theorisation within current fertility debates.
The analysis is divided into two parts: First, cohort total fertility (CTF) at age 40 is calculated for cohorts born between 1960 and 1982, by gender and educational level. As no previous research exists on the interplay of educational level and childbearing in Iceland, this first part of the analysis provides insight into the education-fertility nexus and some solid ground to stand on for subsequent analysis. The second part consists of time-series trends displaying the childbearing risks during 1998–2022. As CTF can only be calculated at the end of the reproductive years, this latter part of the analysis produces more current evidence of any changing associations that might help explain the drop in period fertility since 2010.
Preliminary results show that the CTF declined in Iceland, modestly at first but more forcefully for cohorts born in 1975 and later. This trend applied to both men and women, and at an aggregate level. However, while the CTF among the low- and middle-educated groups of women decreased at a similar rate across birth cohorts, the CTF of the tertiary-educated group increased for cohorts born in the 1960s and 1970s while it decreased among those born in the 1980s. In terms of period trends, results show that the childbearing intensities of the low-educated group of women decreased more profoundly during the past 25 years than those of the middle-educated group, while a trend of stable childbearing intensities was depicted for women with tertiary education. In terms of men, we observe similar trends as that of women but ones that are less extensive across educational groups. Both sets of analysis thus portrait a similar development: more forceful fertility declines among those less educated and increasing differentials by educational level in terms childbearing. The findings are consistent with previous research, indicating that the educational gradient in childbearing behaviour has changed in the Nordics, and that birth rates have dropped steeper among the lower educated. Comolli et al. (2021) suggest that this might be unintended consequences of welfare cuts in the aftermath of the economic crisis in 2008, i.e., increased inequality in terms of childbearing. The findings support such an argument.